India walking a tightrope on Russia-Ukraine conflict: How far can it stretch the cord?

As the volatile situation in Ukraine threatens to engulf Europe in flames again, India chose to abstain from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) procedural vote on the issue. India was amongst the three countries that abstained from voting on the Council’s discussions regarding the situation on the Ukrainian border.

Regardless, the vote was pushed through as 10 of the 15 members voted in favour, with only Russia and China opposing it. India, Kenya and Gabon were the three countries that stayed away. What followed was a heated discussion and a serious falling-out between Washington and Moscow – perhaps, the worst in years.

Even as Russia thanked the countries that stuck up for it or refrained from voting, India’s stance is of considerable interest given the possible geo-political repercussions.

For or against?

While India’s abstention is not an outright position, it serves the same purpose as a veto in the present context. New Delhi wants to make it clear that no amount of external pressure would make it bend the knee. This was reflected in an MEA statement which stated that India pursues an independent foreign policy which by and large extends to matters regarding defense acquisitions and supplies.

The US desperately wants India on its side and may even seek to impose sanctions to that end. India had inked a deal with Russia for the S-400 missile defense system in 2018, which began arriving last month. The sale was conducted despite warnings from the US about sanctions; something Washington might be willing to cash in and get New Delhi to toe the line.

India does not wish to antagonize either country by picking sides. It has good relations with both countries and will prefer to keep it that way. Although the abstention was not a definite opposition, it can be interpreted as a soft ‘no’. This is not the first time that Indian has chosen to remain silent over Russian actions.

During the 2014 Crimean crisis, New Delhi was uncharacteristically silent and even abstained from a United Nations resolution upholding Ukraine’s integrity. India’s actions can be attributed to the time-tested relationship shared by New Delhi and Moscow which dates back to the Cold War. Russia has always shown itself to be a good friend and the recent COVID pandemic is a good example.

Most Indian observers noted that it was Russia – not the US – that came to its aid. This gives further impetus to the New Delhi-Moscow axis. That being said, India does not wish to be seen as siding with Putin on the Ukrainian matter. It risks irking the US and a potential sanction which would cripple its recovering economy, not to mention defense procurement and supplies.

A sanction would be a death-knell for India which relies on Russia for much of its military hardware. As much as 65 per cent of the current equipment is of Russian origin and a sanction on either India or Russia would be disastrous. The Indian Foreign Secretary correctly summed up when he said that “our ships won’t sail, and our aircraft won’t fly” without Russian support.

The best outcome for India lies in the peaceful resolution of tensions and a de-escalation on both sides. A drawn out situation would harm India’s geo-political interests. The longer the US is tangled in Ukraine, the better it is for Beijing. If Eastern Europe becomes the new focal point, China would be free to flex its muscles in the South China Sea and the Pacific region under the radar.

New Delhi will be keen to avoid such a scenario and hence push for a diplomatic solution to the present crisis. India’s statement at the UNSC indicates this, which read, “India’s interest is in finding a solution that can provide for immediate de-escalation of tensions taking into account the legitimate security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace and stability in the region and beyond.”

Both Moscow and Washington will be eager to get New Delhi on the same page. While Russia praised India for resisting the “hand-twisting” by the US, the White House spokesperson expressed hopes that India would take a stand in de-escalating tensions. So far, India has managed to maintain a delicate balance and walk the line. However, if the issue escalates, the Asian giant may need to pick sides.