The Implications of a full-scale Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The situation in Europe is get fuzzier by the minute. French President, Emmanuel Macron, expressed hopes that a possible deal to avoid conflict in Ukraine was within reach. He is headed for Moscow in a bid to make a breakthrough as tensions continue to remain high.

In the months following Russia’s deployment of significant number of troops and weapons to the Ukrainian border, the US and NATO have often found themselves on different sides when it comes to handling Moscow. Europe is beginning to resemble a dysfunctional family, indecisive and undecided on the situation at hand.

Putin knows this well and has utilized it to his advantage as NATO members continue to bicker amongst themselves. The confusion amongst the ranks was plainly visible as Germany, a major European nation, refrained from providing military aid to Ukraine while former Eastern-bloc countries like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania sent materiel to Kyiv.

The situation has developed in such a way that should Russia choose to exercise its military might, the dissolution of Ukraine would be an inevitability. This is not to say that the Ukrainian military would not put up a fight. However, in the face of an overwhelming foe, they would be forced to retreat and ultimately fly the white flag. The question, then, is whether Russia would be willing to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

A total Russian victory or another Stalingrad?

Theoretically speaking, Russian forces would have no problem launching an invasion and advancing deep into Ukrainian territory. Holding on to these territories is an altogether different matter. One must not forget that the Ukrainians will be fighting in their home turf. Although any semblance of an organized military operation is out of the question, pockets of resistance will still exist and can prove to be Moscow’s undoing.

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Always the wily tactician, Putin will be keen to avoid a repeat of the Soviet Union’s misadventures in Afghanistan. Despite a superior technological advantage, Soviet forces had to contend with mass casualties inflicted by inferior mujahedeen who resorted to guerilla tactics. While the Ukrainian military is far more capable than the mujahedeen, a guerilla war is not out of the question.

Then there is, of course, the problem of logistics. The famous general, Napoleon, once said that an army marches on its stomach. This still holds true even today. The fast pace of a Russian advance might out-run its logistics. Logistics is key to maintaining the integrity and effective fighting capability of any fighting unit. Russian logistics trains supplying its troops on the offensive will undoubtedly present juicy targets for any Ukrainian resistance.

Another critical factor is the willingness of the Ukrainian population to hold out against the invading forces. In Kharkiv, a city just 40 kilometers from the massed Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, civilians have started training in guerilla warfare. Viktoria Balesina, a table-tennis coach, is one of the many who have started joining such classes. “This city has to be protected. We need to do something, not to panic and fall on our knees. We do not want this,” she states as a matter of fact.

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Even if Moscow decides to rain down missiles on the city before unleashing the war hounds, it might just find itself caught up in another Stalingrad – something Russian military commanders will not be keen on. Russia cannot afford to find itself bogged down in another Stalingrad if it wishes to push through to Kyiv.

The way out

Perhaps, Putin’s best bet lies in getting the West to blink first. The US and its European allies have so far failed to provide anything close to a united front. Nothing good can come out of an invasion. Both parties have much to lose and little to gain. Additionally, although Russia has around 200,000 troops deployed on the Ukrainian border, it may not be enough to steamroll Ukraine.

In fact, if one looks at the official sources, the number of Russian troops committed to the Ukrainian front may be enough to seize a city but nothing more. Former Defence Minister of Ukraine, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, stated that while Russia might be successful in seizing Kyiv or another Ukrainian city, it does not have the manpower to take over the whole country.

Given the stakes and the larger geo-political implications at play, both sides would be unwilling to commit to an all-out war. In that case, there may still be hope for a diplomatic solution to this Ukrainian crisis.