NATO – The Beginning of the End?

The situation in Europe is turning out to be a strange re-enactment of events that transpired some 80-odd years ago. On 1 September, 1939, Germany’s military machine blitzed through Poland, preceded by a false flag operation that gave Hitler the casus belli he so desperately needed.

Despite assurances of support, Britain and France stood aside as the infamous corporal marched his forces into Poland and plunged the world into another world war. Just 21 years after the ‘war to end all wars’ had drawn to a close, conflict consumed the world, again.

Now 77 years later, the exact scenario is being replicated albeit with minor changes, or drastic ones, depending on how you look at it. Russian supremo, Vladimir Putin has charged himself with taking on the role of Hitler while the US and her allies execute a masterful depiction of Britain and France. The bone of contention – Ukraine.

A House in Shambles

The inability of NATO and by and large, Europe, to present a united front against the Russian bear has thrown a spanner in the works. This is not the first time Moscow has undertaken a risky maneuver only to be met by harsh words. Recall the 2008 Georgian conflict or the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia’s actions were condemned by the West. All talk, no action.

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Divergent interest amongst NATO members has presented Putin a rare chance to upend European power structure in his favour. It is no secret that Russia sees itself as the spiritual successor to the erstwhile Soviet Union. Putin himself made it clear when he stated in 2005 that the breakup of the Soviet Union “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

Any amateur historian can easily draw parallels between the situation in 1939 and the one that faces us now. The British Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, was contend to follow the policy of appeasement in his dealings with Adolf Hitler and look where that got us. The French were complicit in the act too, choosing to turn a blind eye as German forces ravaged Poland.

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Germany, after its eventual defeat in World War 2, occupation, division and reunification, has today transformed itself into one of the leaders in Europe. It is certainly a force to reckon with and is a valuable member of NATO. However, its handling of the Ukraine crisis has cast doubts in the minds of its allies, with many asking if Germany is sitting on the other side of the fence.

Berlin refused to authorize the flight-path of British military planes transporting materiel to Ukraine over its territory. Moreover, its interpretation of aid amounted to 5,000 military helmets. The German government has defended its actions stating that its unwillingness to sell arms or facilitate their shipment to Ukraine is based on its war experiences. In fact, it has gone a step further and refused to allow third parties like Estonia from exporting German-made weapons to Kyiv.

The French have also stayed aloof of the whole incident, choosing to engage with Moscow on a bilateral basis – understandable, especially after the US engineered the AUKUS deal behind their backs. President, Emmanuel Macron, made the trip to Moscow with the intention of brokering a peaceful solution. He also reinstated the need for an independent European policy towards Moscow, something the US will be wary of.

Bear Necessities

The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has definitely revealed the cracks within NATO. Divergence of interests threatens to shatter the coalition as member countries remain split on a unified decision. Germany’s hesitance to take a hard stand against Moscow stems from its reliance on gas imports from Siberia. One flick of a switch is all it would take to freeze Germany. Additional issues including the Nord Stream 2 pipeline along with public sentiment has been very effective at reigning in Berlin.

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The situation in France is no better. Presidential elections are around the corner and Macron will be keen to avoid diminishing his chances. A similar situation prevails in Rome where presidential elections are taking place. The only semblance of unity is visible in northern Europe and Former-Soviet states. Consequently, Poland, Britain, Sweden and Baltic countries have expressed displeasure over the indecisiveness of their German and French allies.

History is the best teacher we have. The policy of appeasement and tall rhetoric without accompanying actions is a sure step towards disaster. NATO needs to get its house in order before Putin chooses to cross the Rubicon lest Europe devolves into chaos, again.