Red Dragon Rising: Does China stand to gain the most from the Ukraine conflict?

Months have passed since Russia first moved men and machinery to the Ukrainian front. Moscow is adamant that such troop movements are part of a military exercise with Belarus, which Washington and Kyiv vehemently deny.

Russia is expected to have 30,000 troops along with a full complement of fighter jets and missile systems for the war games in Belarus. The joint exercise is expected to continue till 20 February and is a significant contributor to the recent surge in military activity on the Ukrainian border. The Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, is currently in Belarus and will oversee the forthcoming war games.

Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, insists that this is all part of Moscow’s plans to destabilize his country. He even divulged that a coup plot involving both Russians and Ukrainians had been uncovered. Amidst all this, the United States has sided with Kyiv and warned Russia of dire consequences should any invasion occur. To that end, President Joe Biden has approved shipment of military aid to Ukraine along with the deployment of 3,000 US troops to Poland, Germany and Romania.

As the global focus remains firmly rooted on Europe, China has been steadily making gains elsewhere. As per latest reports, China is all set to build a nuclear power plant in Argentina. The contract for the $8 billion Atucha III nuclear power plant was signed between state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and Nuclear Power Plant Argentina.

This is a concerning development for the United States given China’s growing influence so close to home. It is no secret that China has made more inroads in Latin America – something Washington has been unable to do for years. It also highlights the changing geo-political climate as China seeks to stamp its authority on global affairs.

Read Also – India walking a tightrope on Russia-Ukraine conflict: How far can it stretch the cord?

Tensions in Ukraine may be a blessing in disguise for China, as the US will undoubtedly be drawn into it. When it comes to hard power, even NATO struggles to match the US military might. This was highlighted by the former president, Donald Trump, who wanted NATO countries to try and match the United States’ contribution.

A distracted US plays right into Beijing’s hands. As long as Washington is tied up in European affairs, China will more or less have the leeway to make moves in other theatres. In fact, the situation in Ukraine is pushing Moscow closer to China. This works for both countries, who have much to gain from a weakened US, and spells disaster for NATO and its allies.

Read Also – What’s there for the US amidst Russia, Ukraine cold war?

Asia and the Pacific will have to bear the consequences of a resurgent China. Countries like India which are already at loggerheads with China will have to bend the knee, willingly or not. It is in the best interest of the global community to de-escalate tensions in Europe through diplomatic channels before it boils over. The prospect of a war is a calamitous one from which no victors will arise. Or perhaps it will, in the East.