Lenin’s theory of change, a theory of social disruption – imposing a shift so radical that a society could not go back to how it was. These disruptions don’t just happen but require a set of conditions to launch them. The idea of another cold war in the near future seems far-fetched to many, but experts who study such conflicts might disagree.
The US has for years supplied military support to Ukraine in order to provoke its decades-old enemy Russia. Now, the US officials are warning Russia that it’d back the country if Russia tries to invade.
Having ended nearly ended the fight with Taliban in Afghanistan recently, the US is now bracing up to back Ukraine militarily. “If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, US and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO.
He added that after fighting an insurgency for over two decades, they have learned the know hows of fighting them and Putin dare not consider sending insurgents into Ukraine.
The United States has provided about USD 2.5 billion in military aid to Kyiv, including radars, anti-tank missiles, patrol boats, and communications equipment as assistance to the Ukrainian military.
It is also planning to supply a battlefield intelligence system that could intercept invasion more quickly, senior administration officials said.
Seth G. Jones, director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that Russian retaliation against Ukrainian insurgents could be “swift, direct and very brutal, it’s likely to get bloody.”
For the US, Ukraine is a valuable ally to position its patriot missile system in close range to Russia. Had Ukraine not existed, Russia would have access to the oil and natural resources there, consolidating the black sea region and being able to station troops in the vulnerable southern flank of Europe.
Through Ukraine, Russia wants to build its relationship with Iran, which is not in the interest of the US. Additionally, Russian support can directly reach Syria and the middle east, and perhaps Turkey might decide to leave the US and ally with Russia.